Follow the Money

Brad Setser tracks cross-border flows, with a bit of macroeconomics thrown in.

Latest Post

Estimating Future Interest Income From Russia’s Frozen Reserves

Outright seizure of the Russian Central Bank’s hundreds of billions in frozen assets is currently off the table, but it is still possible to obtain large sums for Ukraine from the interest income on these assets. Read More

Power and Financial Interdependence
My new paper for the Geoeconomics and Geofinance Initiative of the Institute Français des Relations Internationals’ (IFRI) explores the history of the Sino-American financial relationship.
China’s New Currency Peg
The peg that shall not be named, and all the trouble that creates.
The Japanese Bid for Foreign Bonds After the End of Yield Curve Control
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to end yield curve control. But Japanese yields will remain low, and foreign bonds will remain attractive to those Japanese investors who don’t have to hedge.
  • China
    China’s Record Manufacturing Surplus
    The U.S. likes talking about the dominance of the dollar. But don’t short-change China’s current dominance of manufacturing trade. Trade imbalances need to be taken seriously again.
  • Economics
    The IMF Needs to Focus on Setting Good Targets for External Debt Sustainability
    The IMF has two frameworks for assessing debt sustainability. The market access country framework is more technically advanced, but it isn't delivering reasonable targets for debt restructuring cases. Sri Lanka is a case in point.
  • China
    China’s New Currency Playbook
    China’s pivot to a new strategy of indirect intervention through its large state banks requires new approaches to policing currency policies by both the U.S. Treasury and IMF.
  • Russia
    Mobilizing Russia’s Immobilized Reserves
    A quick note on the debate over the use of Russia’s frozen reserves.
  • Economics
    An SDR-Linked Bond Can Strengthen the Finances of the World Bank Group
    SDR-denominated bonds have the potential to significantly strengthen the balance sheet of both the IBRD (The World Bank) and IDA, freeing up cash and helping both institutions deliver on their mandate to foster development.
  • Economics
    How the U.S. and EU Could Harmonize Their Approaches to Trade in EVs and Steel
    Despite sharing broadly similar policy goals, the U.S. and EU are currently struggling to find common approaches to trade in green goods. New ideas are needed.
  • China
    China's Current Account Surplus Is Likely Much Bigger Than Reported
    The IMF needs to focus on China’s external account in its surveillance. The reported current account surplus appears to be significantly too low.