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Follow the Money

Brad Setser tracks cross-border flows, with a bit of macroeconomics thrown in.

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Estimating Future Interest Income From Russia’s Frozen Reserves

by Brad W. Setser and Michael Weilandt June 11, 2024

Outright seizure of the Russian Central Bank’s hundreds of billions in frozen assets is currently off the table, but it is still possible to obtain large sums for Ukraine from the interest income on these assets. Read More

International Finance
The World Needs a Second Channel for Using SDRs
The multilateral development banks need to develop a second channel for mobilizing the world’s under-utilized special drawing rights (SDRs).
Blog Post by Brad W. Setser and Stephen Paduano November 6, 2023 Follow the Money
Economics
The State of Sovereign Debt Restructuring After the Meetings in Marrakech
Some fundamental problems with the IMF’s Common Framework for debt restructuring have become apparent. Not the least, debt restructuring shouldn't just be an issue for low-income countries.
Blog Post by Brad W. Setser November 1, 2023 Follow the Money
China
Can China Reduce Its Internal Balances Without Renewed External Imbalances?
The rest of the world has a big stake in whether China responds to the demand drag from its construction and real estate slump with looser monetary policy or with direct stimulus to households.
Blog Post by Brad W. Setser October 8, 2023 Follow the Money
  • China
    China Isn't Shifting Away From the Dollar or Dollar Bonds
    China's reserves has shifted its dollar reserves from Treasuries to Agencies, and made increased use of offshore custodians. The available evidence suggests that it still holds about 50 percent of its reserves in dollar bonds.
    Blog Post by Brad W. Setser October 3, 2023 Follow the Money
  • China
    How to Hide Your Foreign Exchange Reserves—A User’s Guide
    A deep dive into the techniques China used to hide its foreign exchange reserves over the last twenty years 
    Blog Post by Brad W. Setser June 29, 2023 Follow the Money
  • Turkey
    Turkey’s Increasing Balance Sheet Risks
    Turkey is heading for a classic currency crisis.  All of its reserves and then some are borrowed.
    Blog Post by Brad W. Setser June 6, 2023 Follow the Money
  • Economics
    Using an SDR Bond Creatively to Boost Concessional and Climate Finance
    Combining an SDR with budget funding is the most efficient way to stretch budgeted dollars (and euros) and increased the global supply of concessional financing. 
    Blog Post by Brad W. Setser and Stephen Paduano June 1, 2023 Follow the Money