Turkey-Syria Earthquake Aftermath, Khamenei’s Pardon, Lula Visits Washington, and More

MCMAHON:
In the coming week, Turkey and Syria struggle to respond to earthquakes. Iran's regime considers partnering thousands of protestors. And, Brazil's President Lula meets President Biden in Washington. It's February 9th, 2023 in time for The World Next Week. I'm Bob McMahon.

ROBBINS:
And I'm Carly Ann Robbins. So Bob, nice to see you and certainly nice to talk to you. So let's start sadly with the devastation in Turkey and Syria. This past Monday is 7.8, which is an extraordinary number, earthquake hit the border region of the two countries and the aftershocks are continuing, compounding the destruction. The estimated death toll as of Thursday is close to 20,000 and is certain to climb. And while the window for rescue is closing fast, it's incredibly cold there. Both Turkey and Syria have huge tasks ahead of providing relief for the tens of thousands of people displaced and eventually rebuilding. How well are they doing? Is the aid getting in? Are they getting enough support from the international community and getting aid in particular to Syria given its outcast state is a tricky one. When you consider as well that most of the people who have been killed and displaced are in an opposition region and Assad has not been kind to those people.

MCMAHON:
Yes, it's two very distinct national contexts and obviously earthquakes know no boundaries. This one was particularly pernicious in the region that was hit, especially in Syria. So I think I'll take it one country at a time, Carla. 

So Turkey, which is bearing a bigger area and a bigger impact both in damage and in lives lost is scrambling to try to deal with it. It's got difficulties in getting to some of these places. If you look at some of the footage that's come in so far, you have basically have whole villages just flattened. You're looking at some aerial shots of before and after where there were buildings and then there's just a leveling off of basically dust in some areas, which we'll get back to in terms of what that means about building in an earthquake zone. But it is a big challenge for President Erdoğan and he's diving into the issue by all accounts and trying to get aid in there while at the same time acknowledging that "errors were made" in his words.

At the same time, he is calling out criticisms of the aid effort and there was a period in time in which Twitter was taken offline in Turkey. Turkish officials talked about technical errors. There were some suspicions that it was a deliberate attempt to block criticism. Twitter, we should note, even with all of its recent troubles under Elon Musk is seen as absolutely essential tool for responding in this type of emergency. Now we can talk about maybe that shouldn't be the best platform for this, but it stands as an important tool. Even some people buried under rubble were said to have been tweeting either in this emergency or in previous ones to indicate that they needed help. And so as you said, timing is absolutely crucial. You have people in brutally cold weather buried under debris and they're still pulling people alive out of debris in Turkey especially, but it's a difficult areas to get to.

And then on top of it, there are certainly recriminations about how the government allowed in a well-known earthquake zone building codes to have been overlooked or ignored to get to this point that's going to continue to reverberate. A number of Turkey experts have noted that President Erdoğan himself rose to prominence as a critic of the government's preparedness for past earthquakes, particularly one Istanbul at the end of the twentieth century. So this is an issue that resonates for Turkey. These are earthquake zones that have been chronicled going back millennia for the country, although quake of this size has not been known in the region for more than eighty years. So very huge test for Turkey.

And then I'll just say something quickly about Syria, which is, you have a portion of the country that is not under government control that bore the brunt of this earthquake by all accounts, and it is a region that is only reachable by one avenue. This is because of protests that Russia has backed at the UN Security Council protests from the Syrian government that there were people getting into the aid flow that were operating against the Syrian government. To make a long story short, there were people in desperate straits before this earthquake hit in this part of Syria. More than 4 million of them, they are now under unimaginable difficulty and it's very difficult to get to them. Reports just before we taped this podcast where that the UN had actually sent a convoy from Turkey into this crossing that is the only open crossing into the region, we'll see how that plays out. They're going to need a lot of aid and this is going to be a major test not only of Turkish government, Syrian government, but of the UN Security Council and other governments that have an ability to provide aid.

ROBBINS:
So Bob, and you're right, we do have to separate these out because they are different political situations and somewhat different geographical situations. But even before this tragedy, as you noted, Erdoğan was facing a tougher than expected political situation. He's up for reelection in May and also as you noted, his party came to power twenty years ago because the previous Prime Minister Bülent Ecevit, probably not pronouncing that correctly, had done a terrible job managing a absolutely devastating earthquake in 1999. He has to know how much is on the line now. They've declared a state of emergency, what in ten regions, ten provinces. And do we have to worry that he could use this as an excuse to delay or suspend the vote? The man has very strong authoritarian tendencies.

MCMAHON:
I think that's a major concern, Carla. It's a major concern that certainly May 14th looms is a very big date and pushing that is going to raise all sorts of concerns, as well as whatever opportunities he takes to clamp down on voices of dissent or even of criticism that the aid has been too slow. If he starts to really ramp up any sort of repression, let's say there are leaders from that section of Turkey, this is south, southeastern Turkey, who start talking out about the need for aid and they start getting clamped down or other voices start facing further government repression. And let's note this has already been happening in the run-up to these elections. He was very concerned about the extent to which he was going to be able to win a mandate to continue to govern/rule in Turkey. But if he starts to do that, that raises all sorts of concerns.

It's why you have even NATO allies of Turkey trying to step up efforts to make sure that aid gets in quickly and that they provide aid, but that they also have a voice in Erdoğan's ear to tell him to handle this properly. It's a very difficult sensitive time as well because you don't want to be trying to appear to play politics at a time when really lives are at stake. Tens of thousands of lives are at stake.

And so by the same token though, there is a lot at stake in Turkey. And when you look at massive earthquakes like this previous that have hit other countries, there are always ramifications and some more desperate than others. Haiti still hasn't recovered from its massive earthquake of eleven or twelve years ago and is virtually a failed state. That is an extreme example, but other countries have had to deal with government changes sometimes brought on by this. Turkey's a very capable country, obviously with much more means and much more ability to deal with crises. But this is a test and you're going to, as you said, unfortunately, see death tolls go higher and really the full extent of the damage is going to become more apparent as we get reports out of that area.

ROBBINS:
I know I'm focusing probably too much on Turkey, but it is the thing that we understand better than what's going on in this region that's so off limits in Syria. Before the quake, Erdoğan seemed to have decided that his mission in life was to be a thorn in the side of NATO. He was flirting constantly with Vladimir Putin, buying really sensitive military equipment from him, and most recently blocking Sweden's application to join NATO. As you said, the United States and NATO allies are trying to rush aid to Turkey. Do you think all of this overwhelmingly Western aid and the Chinese have offered some support pouring in as likely to mellow him and make him realize who it's friends really are?

MCMAHON:
I don't think he can rule it out. It's an appalling tragedy that you can't really kind of grasp unless they've kind of lived through it. And so it's hard to see... You can kind of put into a box how Erdoğan has gradually become more repressive and more authoritarian, but by the same token sometimes, you get a pivot in a major crisis like this. So we'll have to see how that plays out. As you say, the day before the earthquake, he was seen to be playing a very cynical game with NATO. NATO coming to his aid, including there's footage of people from Greece, the arch rival of Turkey and country that has specially strong odds with Turkey. Most recently over some territorial claims, Greece has sent relief workers in and helping to rescue people and that kind of thing does matter.

So it's just a question of whether such so-called soft power at the end of the day figures into his calculations and it's hard to imagine the calculations going on with crisis of such scale right now. We should also note, by the way, Turkey has played a very big role in hosting millions of Syrian refugees and they haven't gone anywhere. They're still in Turkey. In this region alone that was hit by the earthquake in Turkey, there are estimated three and a half million Syrian refugees who are facing increased hardship now. They will need help and they will need international help. So that just adds to the layers of complication and concern about this earthquake in the aftermath.

ROBBINS:
So Bob, we've been talking about politics here, but really more than anything else, this is a human tragedy, as you said. So I'm sure many of our listeners have already provided support, but if they're looking for places that they can send support to, we have some names that we can share.

MCMAHON:
Yes, sure. I can kick off with a few that are seen as particularly effective in this moment, including the Red Crescent Red Cross that operates in the region, the White Helmets people have heard of that are very active in Syria that are particularly effective in bringing humanitarian aid on the ground there. Groups like the International Rescue Committee and many UN affiliated agencies which work with a lot of these NGOs, but I think you might have some more as well to add Carla.

ROBBINS:
Well, Doctors Without Borders of course, there's also agency called Ahbap which provides shelter, food and medical supplies for those in need in Turkey, AKUT which is a voluntary non-governmental organization involved in searching, assisting, and rescuing all who require aid. CARE, which of course is very well known. There's something called the Karam Foundation, which delivers shelter and basic needs of disaster relief to both the Syrian and Turkish people and Save the Children. Now there are many more, but these are some that we have been told about and we thought we would, without endorsing them, we thought we would at least share the name. We urge everyone to do their own research on this, but relief is something that everybody should be supporting.

MCMAHON:
And we'll post a mini-list on our show notes page as well. But Carla, I want to remain in the Middle East actually and discuss Iran because this weekend is the forty-fourth. anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, and this is a time in which in the past ayatollahs have granted amnesty. Supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei has announced he will pardon "tens of thousands" of imprisoned protestors who've been part of this protest movement that began in September. Why would Khamenei give out so many pardons and do you think this will really happen?

ROBBINS:
So there is considerable confusion about who is being offered amnesty and how many or which of the protestors are actually going to benefit from this. When the announcement first came out on state news media, it said the supreme leader had "agreed to offer amnesty and reduced the sentences of tens of thousands accused and convicted" in what it referred to delicately as the recent incidents. And then a later government sanctioned news report reeled that back saying the amnesty would be for "tens of thousands of convicts including the arrestees of the recent riots in Iran," which is quite... That seemed to be reeling it back. And it's not even clear how many of these women's rights protestors the government is actually holding. The government has never said and the UN puts the number at 14,000 Iran and human rights activists say this nearly 20,000. And the announcement also was denounced by activists who pointed to the fact that it came with a very long list of caveats.

The government said it would not apply to many of the crimes the protestors have been charged with and convicted of already in sham proceedings, including spying, armed action, destroying public property, committing murder or causing injury, or people affiliated with groups hostile to the Islamic Republic, having contact with agents of foreign intelligence services being an enemy of God or guilty of corruption on Earth. Those last few charges have been used against most of the protestors who've been executed. I think four of them already have been hung or those who've been condemned to death. I think the most recent count is nineteen in total between the executed and those on death row. So they've put a lot of caveats on this. So we really don't know how many of those people that they're going to grant amnesty to, whether they're just people who were swept up, we know that they're quite a few minors in this, we just don't know.

What we do know is that the level of repression is working for now, Bob. These large protests have mainly subsided except in a few pockets in Iran and those that continue, continue to be met with beatings, arrests, torture, shootings and threats of execution. But if they do go ahead and release thousands of people who were actually arrested in the protests and pretty much everybody's skeptical that that's going to happen, you really do have to wonder if the government is feeling more insecure than it appears. It's certainly, even though it's granted many pardons in the past, it has no history of charity toward its political opponents.

MCMAHON:
That was going to be my question about why even offer this at this point if they had indeed seized the upper hand, which many recent reports have indicated why even take this route, although a repressive governments have in the past in many countries, not just Iran liked to claim the high ground and show their magnanimity, but in this case, in this particular regime that has not been there in modus operandi, again, we're a little bit conflating regime with supreme leader, although he is tight with the president, much tighter with President Raisi than he has been with previous presidents. Is that right?

ROBBINS:
I think he is the regime. I really do. And I think it tells you something in particular about this president that nobody is even making a distinction here. Nobody's paying any attention to Raisi.

MCMAHON:
I have heard from some Iran experts at Raisi himself might be in the running to be groomed as the next supreme leader.

ROBBINS:
Right. 

MCMAHON:
Because Khamenei has been reported to be ailing for years and there might be that sort of movement afoot as well. So I think it's a long way of saying that it's maybe another effort to diffuse the protests.

ROBBINS:
Well, once again, I'm not an Iran expert, so we just have to rely on the people we talk to and the things that we read. When you compare this to, and I did write a reasonable amount about this at the time, the 2009 protests, the ones after the stolen elections in 2009. The situation is more dire inside of Iran. The economy is worse in public alienation is much greater. The turnout in the 2021 presidential race was the lowest since the 1979 revolution, but the 2009 protests were much larger.

And the difference between 2009 and now is that in 2009 there was a very visible split in the elite. You had a former prime minister, a former speaker, the parliament joining the opposition itself. And even then those protests were smothered and most important in 2009 and now, there is so far there's been no sign of a break in the security forces that said these places are a black box to us. Who knows what's going behind, what the activists say and the people who watch Iran say is that they are say this is a very cynical move, that they don't believe that this is an act of beneficence. But I think we have to watch and see who's actually released.

MCMAHON:
And it makes it even harder to glean what's happening with the media blackout that continues that it started since September and it wasn't the most open media situation before that. But since then a huge clamp down on social media and an ongoing pursuit of people trying to distribute information videos and so forth digitally. So it makes it very hard to really get a sense of the extent of activism and the extent to which people are getting real information about what's happening across their country.

ROBBINS:
Iran of course, was a major focus of U.S. policy until the Ukraine war came along. And now I will talk about something that I actually has been a focus for me for years and years, which is the nuclear program. And I was just looking that the head of the IAEA just said a few days ago that Iran has enough highly enriched uranium to potentially build "several atomic bombs" if it chooses. And things are just sort of toggling along this nuclear deal, there hasn't been any contact at all since August. And even then that was, these were like, they weren't even in the same room when they were talking to each other. This thing is completely collapsed.

And while Americans and Israelis are the ones who follow this, the intelligence community who follow this, closely say that Iranians are still weeks away from actually taking the enriched uranium they have and putting it up to fuel grade. But they also say that they're a couple of years away from actually being able to fashion into something that you could put on top of in war hub, on top of a missile. But that's closer that I would like it to be. The last, this context, as I said was quite a long time ago and President Biden this video surfaced, the President Biden said he was working the rope line in early November to campaign event and some woman said, "Can you declare the nuclear deal dead?" And he said, "It's dead, but we're not going to announce it."

That was a Kinsley gaffe. You're saying the truth when you shouldn't, but they clearly don't have a follow on policy for dealing with Iran's nuclear program. They've been much more focused on containment, questions of sabotage, what they can possibly do, and more than anything else, whether they can break the link of a weapons trade between Iran and Russia because that's the major focus of American policy. But meanwhile, this is all going on, not really behind the scenes. The Iranians are quite in our face about the fact that they're pressing forward with this nuclear program, although they insist it's not a weapons program.

MCMAHON:
I think you've zeroed in on the issue here, which is that Iran is becoming more and more difficult to both fathom as well as influence at least in the ways that had been previously when you had so-called pragmatists running at least part of the country. So it's going to be worth watching this weekend, but I wouldn't hold our breaths.

ROBBINS:
And that of course, and they're providing drones to the Russians and there's reports that they're also going to build a factory inside of Russia to build drones. I mean they are problematic on all fronts. 

So let's move from the Middle East to an unproblematic place, Washington, DC. Boy, that State of the Union and all those very calm and friendly and accepting people there. So we did talk about heckling last week, but I didn't not predict Bob that the heckling was going to be at that level. I thought that I was perhaps over predicting how bad it was going to be, but enough. So tomorrow, President Lula, Inácio Lula da Silva will be meeting with President Biden at the White House just a month ago, insurrectionists were storming Brazil's Congress building in an attempt to overturn Lula's election. So these two men have that foundational trauma to draw them together. So can we expect more than symbolism out of this or is it just going to be, "Boy, we're in it together to promote democracy?" Which when you think about it, is a pretty important thing.

MCMAHON:
Yeah, I think very much the latter, Carla, it is a major thing. This invitation I believe went out very shortly after the January 8th events. There was already, I think, plans afoot for the two leaders to meet. There's lots to talk about and an incredible parallels in both countries in terms of what they faced domestically, let alone what they could do collectively, internationally. And let's note that like in the U.S., Brazil's a very divided country and whereas Lula did win a very narrow election against Jair Bolsonaro, Bolsonaro's party did very well in governor races across the vast terrain of Brazil as well as in the legislature. So Lula's going to have his hands full in dealing with this. This is his second time around. He faded from the scene under a cloud of corruption, but he came back strong and there was obviously strong enough support for him to try to right the ship because enough Brazilians were disaffected by Bolsonaro's erratic governance, which included among many other things, the return to plundering the Amazon in an uncoordinated way, which has implications far beyond Brazil's borders.

We could devote a whole podcast of the climate issues here, but it is important to note Lula had forged an international persona for Brazil and including at environmental conferences, at climate conferences, he is a leader in the region. And even though the region has gone through its own turmoil across the board, Brazil could be considered to be a country that might be more of a voice to help in some of the region's problems.

And you just look across South America and you've got challenges amok from Venezuela to Peru, not to mention what's going on in the Caribbean right now. So I think they have a lot to talk about. I think they will talk about what their common efforts are to deal with domestic dissent and to reinforce democracy. The U.S. is going to be supporting in, I believe in March, a democracy summit that it's going to try to use to gather steam for the world's democracies to seize the narrative anew. And there by the way, there are signs that is an area where there could be some momentum building despite the difficulties. So lots to talk about that these two venerable leaders, Lula's only a few years younger than Biden, who's the oldest president in U.S. history. And so again, lots of things to talk about and the symbolism is going to be powerful.

ROBBINS:
So does Lula, I know it's early, but does Lula actually have substantive policies to get Brazil back on track for climate and particularly to try to slow the destruction or even roll things back for the Amazon?

MCMAHON:
I think that's one area where you can say he has, he showed up after his election, before he took office. He and members of his team showed up at the latest COP talks in the Middle East to talk about what Brazil was prepared to do because Bolsonaro had basically been dismissive of the whole effort, had had sometimes talked out of both sides of his mouth about what Brazil was as a steward of the environment. But he had been very resentful of other countries trying to throw their weight around in terms of what Brazil should do in the Amazon, which is something that many Brazilians have felt in the past. But Bolsonaro was particularly dismissive of that even though there had been agreements for other countries to fund efforts for sustainable development in the Amazon. And I think you're going to see a renewed effort towards that.

Brazilian leaders, even those like Lula, who support the stewardship and the trying to arrest the plundering of the Amazon still see it obviously as an extremely valuable resource. And so I think he'll be trying to resume work towards putting on a sustainable footing. So not like rampant opening up of cattle ranches across swaths of pristine rainforest. And while that might sound like an oversimplification and in fact was happening under Bolsonaro in ways that we hadn't seen, Lula had actually introduced some controlled measures to both maintain an economy in the Brazilian Amazon, but also to really preserve it. And it is important to note what environmentalists call a tipping point of where the Amazon ceases to be a source as a carbon sink and as actually a carbon emitter. And there's concern that has already passed that point. It's not a hundred percent clear because the climate science is very complex, but I think you're seeing Lula work quickly. It was one of the first things he started talking about after his election. So that will be something that both leaders will be talking about even though they face pushback domestically on climate issues.

ROBBINS:
So let's get to the question I really want to ask you. Lula's predecessor and the man who may or may not be fomenting the insurrectionist, Bolsonaro, is still in the United States and he seems determined to take over the role of Florida man. I read that he's applied for a six-month tourist visa since his head of state visa has apparently run out. What do you think he's up to? Does he just like the weather or is the fact that he is outside of very close to Disney World, is that what it's all about?

MCMAHON:
Florida offers many things Carla, but there were a number of reports after he ended up in Florida or popped up in Florida for health treatment about how other leaders from the hemisphere have ended up in Florida for various reasons. And it is very curious issue and it poses a potential, really thorny issue for the Biden administration about extradition if the Brazilians seek that. That'll certainly be on, I think on the agenda for talks, whether or not how public they want to go, the two leaders, is probably going to be limited, but it's certainly going to be something they talk about, what do we do about this?

And it is a very curious situation. Bolsonaro is, we should say, still dealing with some of the health issues that happened when he was campaigning for president where he was stabbed and he does have legitimate health issues. However, he's also potentially behind some forces that would like to see Lula unseated. He has not been forthcoming in accepting the Lula presidency and decided to skip the whole transition altogether. So there are a lot of suspicions about what Bolsonaro is up to. And I'll just say it poses some quandaries for the two leaders.

ROBBINS:
So he's, as you know, under investigation in Brazil for just a host of things. At the same time, it's probably good for Brazil that he's not there. It's probably better to have him out than in. But Biden got a letter from over forty House Democrats telling him to send him back, to revoke his visa. And it's interesting the way that our has been dealing with, I mean he's been...stars, they're just like us. He's been shopping at Publix, he's been seen at the Kentucky Fried Chicken, and he comes out every day and he signs autographs from Brazilians who line up. He's really sort of a rockstar there. I'm not sure if I were going to be a rockstar, I would choose to live outside of Orlando, but then I'm many years of my life in Miami, I would've chosen a little bit further south. And anyway, it'll be interesting to see if they come out publicly say that probably want to avoid that topic.

MCMAHON:
And again, it keeps this compelling issue of Brazil on the forefront of U.S. and media reports. We haven't seen this much Brazil coverage in many years, certainly outside of soccer coverage, Carla.

ROBBINS:
Outside soccer, true.

MCMAHON:
Well Carla, we've talked our way into the audience figure of the week portion of the podcast, and this is the part when listeners can vote on every Tuesday and Wednesday at CFR_org's Instagram story. This week our audience selected, "Hong Kong 47 Trial Begins." Why is forty-seven our figure of the week, Carla?

ROBBINS:
So Bob, as you'll remember, China imposed this draconian national security law in Hong Kong following the mass anti-government protests in 2019, which stripped the last vestiges of democracy and ended forever this one country, two systems commitment that it made when Hong Kong was "given back to China" and now forty-seven pro-democracy figures which were accused under this law of conspiracy to commit subversion or on trial. Sixteen of them were pleading not guilty, the rest have pled guilty. Their alleged crime was organizing a primary vote in July of 2020 for Hong Kong's democratic opposition in the run up to legislative elections. And the prosecution charges that the primary itself in which hundreds of thousands of people voted was "a massive and well organized scheme to subvert the Hong Kong government." And the trial is not even going to have a jury. It's going to be decided by a high court of three judges and many of Hong Kong's best known pro-democracy activists, including Joshua Wong and Benny Tai, co-founder of the 2014 Occupy Central movement could face up to life in prison for this.

MCMAHON:
Yeah, it's another grim marker for Hong Kong's decline as a democracy. And as you say, the people on trial are on trial for basically committing democratic practices that they thought were allowed or had been allowed in previous years, I believe. Think we know how this is going to turn out, but-

ROBBINS:
You think?

MCMAHON:
We'll have to see whether there's any juice left in the opposition once this is handed down or whether there's a shrug and Hong Kongers except their fate and the ones who have left have already decided to vote in the way they can vote. But it is, it's another sad marker. And again, this democracy theme we have going back and forth on the power of democracy in this podcast, and this is a negative step, definitely.

ROBBINS:
It is a sad development in what was a very, very beautiful and vibrant place before the Chinese broke their commitment.

MCMAHON:
Well, that's our look at The World Next Week, Carla. Here's some other stories to keep an eye on. Pakistan's Navy holds exercises in Karachi joined by the Chinese People's Liberation Army and the presidential election in Cyprus goes to a runoff.

ROBBINS:
Please subscribe to The World Next Week on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and leave us a review while you're at it, we appreciate the feedback. The publications mentioned in this episode, as well as a transcript of our conversation are listed on the podcast page for The World Next Week on cfr.org. Please note that opinions expressed on The World Next Week are solely those of the hosts or our guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. 

Today's program was produced by Ester Fang, with the director of podcasting, Gabrielle Sierra. Special thanks to Sinet Adous for her research assistance. Thanks, Sinet. Our theme music is provided by Miguel Herrero and licensed under Creative Commons. This is Carla Robbins saying so long.

MCMAHON:
And this is Bob McMahon saying goodbye and be careful out there.