Anniversary of Mahsa Amini’s Death, UN Summits On Climate and Development, Russia Recruits Cubans, and More

Bob McMahon:
In the coming week, it's the one-year anniversary of Mahsa Amini's death in the custody of Iran's morality police, and the United Nations General Assembly begins its high level debate focused on development and climate. It's September 14th, 2023 and time for The World Next Week. I am Bob McMahon.

Carla Anne Robbins:
And I'm Carla Anne Robbins.

Bob McMahon:
Carla, let's start in Iran. This Saturday is one year since the death of Mahsa Amini while in the custody of Iran's morality police. That death triggered demonstrations that Iran hasn't seen, the scale of which it hadn't seen really since the revolution, going back almost forty years. There were a lot of protests involving women and girls, but also other Iranians from really many walks of life. It did shake the regime, but the regime seems to have rallied as well. So what can we say a year later in terms of the Iran's domestic situation?

Carla Anne Robbins:
Well, it's pretty depressing. We've talked about this before. These were pretty extraordinary protests not in size, but in the breadth of society that came in. There were women, there were men, there were young people, women tearing off their headscarves, people chanting, "Women, life, freedom." And for the first time since the revolution, they were also chanting, "Death to the dictator." And so while we had seen protests on things about corrupt elections, about problems with the economy, we had never really seen, as you said, since the revolution, this sort of a protest, and it really scared the government.

Bob McMahon:
Well, and "death to the dictator", some of these directed at the supreme leader, which is a bit unheard of.

Carla Anne Robbins:
Yes. And there were also, we saw a video of police marching with the protesters. There was even a moment in which activists managed to briefly hack the state television's main newscast when it was broadcasting something about the supreme leader and put on pictures of Amini and other protestors who had been killed. It really shook the regime. And you saw people who were in the regime and people who had recently been in the regime, including hardliners, saying for the first time, "Well, maybe mistakes were made," which was a rare thing for them, because they never show weakness. And perhaps the strongest sign of how nervous they were, the government pulled the so-called morality police back. This is the police that had brutally beaten her and led to her death. And there was even talk briefly that the group might be disbanded.

But as ever, the government fought back to quell the demonstrations, they cut off access to messaging apps, they mobilized the police in these paramilitaries and they were armed with tear gas. They had batons, they even had guns. And human rights groups report that some 500 people, including seventy-one minors were killed, hundreds have been wounded, and more than 20,000 were detained. And so far, seven people have been executed. And in July, I think perhaps the most depressing sign of how much the regime has fought back, the government redeployed the morality police, and the parliament proposed a so-called "Hijab and Chastity" bill that contains even tougher punishments for women who refuse to abide by this strict dress code. I mean to call it dress code is absurd. And among its tools that it's calling for is using facial recognition technology to identify unveiled women. 

The only good news in this, Bob, is that women seem remarkably unbounded. We still have an extraordinary number of women in Iran who are walking around the streets, not only unveiled, they're walking around streets in tank tops and in shorts. They're mad as hell, and they're saying they don't want to take it anymore.

Bob McMahon:
Carla, it's easy to get dispirited, especially, I think there were a lot of close Iran watchers who were saying because of the scale of these protests as you spelled out, that this is different, Iran's not going to be the same. But to see the way the retrenchment has happened, it gives the lie to that a little bit.

At the same time, Iran has this population of women still notable in the region, especially that of educated women, of women who are kind of wired to outside communication. Iranians are still able to get outside media in different ways that kind of stay a step ahead of the censors. And because of that, they are defiant. As you say, they simply won't take it anymore. The question is whether Iran is facing any sort of pressure beyond domestically. Are they facing any international pressure from others who are watching this? And we've seen some sanctions against Iranian officials in response from, say, the U.S. and I think some European bodies. But how would you regard the way Iran's international relations have unfolded since these protests?

Carla Anne Robbins:
I think unfortunately, it's the same arc. People were really inspired by these protests and the United States, Europe, other countries imposed additional sanctions on officials, police people who were involved in the repression, and they really moved to further isolate Iran.

But in recent months, Tehran's international influence has grown in part because the protests have died down. And Iran has really cleverly leveraged its position in its relationship with Russia and Ukraine, it's been a major supplier of drones and other military support. And it is, interestingly enough, leveraging its relationship with China: signed a strategic alliance deal with China, it's been invited to join the BRICS. And as we discussed, Bob, China midwifed this diplomatic rapprochement with Saudi Arabia. So out of sight, out of mind on the protests, and sort of international relations go on.

And this past week, just this week, the Biden administration ordered the unfreezing of $6 billion in Iranian oil payments. Not U.S. money, South Korean money for purchases of Iranian oil, to be transferred to Qatar as part of a prisoner swap. The U.S. insists that these five U.S. citizens are going to be freed, and they insist that this is South Korean money, and that the money will only be used for humanitarian purchases, but money is fungible. They're getting a lot of criticism for this. I'm not criticizing the deal, but it's one more example that Iran is being brought in from the cold.

Bob McMahon:
In the reporting of this deal, Carla, there's been a lot of references to a through line to potentially revival of the Iran nuclear deal. And a lot of the talk is coming from the Iranian side, but basically saying that for some sort of freeze in Iran's enrichment of uranium close to a weaponized form, that-

Carla Anne Robbins:
60 percent.

Bob McMahon:
... 60 percent or so, Iran is... The deal, can then maybe kick back in and some of the U.S. sanctions could be easing and so forth. Do you see that going anywhere, or is this something that's just kind of stalled in its tracks? Because Iran is, by many other reports, is not allowing UN inspectors to access normal surveillance as they've done in other places. So it just seems like it's a bit of a cynical move.

Carla Anne Robbins:
Well, everything that has to do with this regime in Tehran is cynical. There are reports that there were these indirect talks, and certainly the Biden administration wants to avoid having to go to the military option, the plan B for Tehran. And supposedly there were conversations about what the Iranians would freeze at 60 percent. It would only produce 60 percent, and it's not the 90 percent enrichment, which is what weapons grade is, but it's in spitting distance of it, and that the Iranians would supposedly curtail their attacks on U.S. forces in the region, and the U.S. in turn would not impose more sanctions, that they would move forward with this prisoner swap.

There has been lots of attempts to revive this deal as the Iranians get closer and closer to breakout. Whether the Iranians actually want to produce a nuclear weapon, I mean, they're so close to having enough enriched uranium, I think most intelligent people think that it would still take them a year or two to produce a bomb. I don't know whether this is going to be the deal. I'm pretty certain that the Biden administration would like to see this not in front of the news between now and the election. They're already getting a huge amount of criticism on this, but Iran getting a bomb is too terrifying a prospect.

Bob McMahon:
And as we've seen on other fronts, whether it's the deployment of the Stuxnet sort of cyber weapon that's been linked to the U.S. or the Israelis behind reported killings of Iran nuclear scientists, the gravity of this is pretty stark to those who follow the situation and who worry about the regime. We should note also, we'll be talking about in shortly, upcoming is the Iranian president coming to the UN to speak. The Iranian president Raisi is seen as more in lockstep with the supreme leader than previous presidents-

Carla Anne Robbins:
And hoping to succeed the supreme leader.

Bob McMahon:
And that has also been reported as well, being potentially groomed to succeed the supreme leader, who has been reported for years to be ailing, and certainly getting no younger. So that's going to be something also important to watch.

Carla Anne Robbins:
And there is the possibility that these five American citizens who have been held will be released in concert with next week's UN festivities. So it's a great thing that they will be coming home. But this is a very fraught situation with Iran moving forward with its nuclear program, and a very fraught situation because the level of repression on the ground, and no easy way to deal with this country.

So Bob, let's shift to New York. This Tuesday marks the start of UNGA's high level debate, where world leaders give what are supposed to be just fifteen minutes speeches, but there's no music to play them off the stage. And in addition to the speeches, there are going to be summits focused on sustainable development goals, on climate, on preparing for the next pandemic, and other issues. There's a lot to watch there. So which ones do you think are the most important?

Bob McMahon:
I would break it up into a few segments, Carla. First, there is the high level debate, this huge gathering, the largest gathering of world leaders every year, even with the no-shows. And some cynically say it's, autocrats can book up luxury hotel suites and then go to the UN and rail against inequality and so forth. Does that happen? Yes. But is it still an important gathering? Yes, it is.

This year President Biden, as usual, U.S. presidents will be one of the first speakers, but he's going to be the only one of the five permanent security council leaders to be present. So Russia, China, the UK and France are not sending their head of state or government. And so that sends a message in some respects. There will be other prominent leaders there speaking though, and-

Carla Anne Robbins:
Can I interrupt you here? Why are the other P5 members not coming? I mean, is this intentional? Is there sort of concerted action there, saying we don't believe the Security Council? Or is this just a confluence of different things for each one of them?

Bob McMahon:
Yeah, I don't think we can see it as a concerted statement of snubbing the UN, per se. I think you have, in the case of Vladimir Putin, his travel is restricted, shall we say, by an ICC indictment over war crimes in Ukraine. So he rarely comes anyway, although he has come on some occasions. Same with Xi Jinping in terms of rarely coming. He does not come to this event often, and was notable for his absence at the G20 summit just in this past week, although he did attend the BRICS summit in South Africa. In the case of Rishi Sunak, it has been reported that he is staying away because he was not being invited to the Climate Ambition Summit because of problems with the way the UK has been handling its obligations in terms of fossil fuels and so forth. And then in Emmanuel Macron, I'm not sure why he's staying away.

Carla Anne Robbins:
Because he's French.

Bob McMahon:
You said it, I didn't say it, Carla, but it is a statement of sorts though. Another reason is sometimes the Security Council presidency or the Security Council states get together and they decide, hey, let's have a session where we have the most powerful leaders in the world sitting in the Security Council together and talking through issues. There's no such sort of collection of issues that they're going to talk... Because usually they try to come up with an issue that, in which they can have some sort of meaningful, constructive discussion. Just not happening. Some of that is reflective of the what's happening in the world. 

And so I think the other thing to note is it's a gathering again at a time of a lot of problems, what's been called polycrises or multiple global crises, Carla. Still coming out of the pandemic, still worrisome signs of COVID resurgence, but the main pandemic was bad enough. 

Coming out of a summer of extraordinary extreme weather events. I think last year what galvanized a lot of attention was Pakistan's appeal for aid after its own biblical set of floods had inundated like a third of the country. This year, you have any number of countries you can point to their own epic climate events. It's three months in a row of the highest temperatures ever recorded on the globe, June through August. Flooding, fires, haze caused by fires, seen in places it had not been seen before. We're dealing with now a huge tragedy in Libya where fourteen to sixteen inches of rain fell in a short period of time. Dams bursting, bodies are washing up every day now in northern Libya.

And so again, you have a backdrop of climate woes, and you have also global disunity over a whole set of other issues, including the response to the war in Ukraine, where you still have this U.S.-Western alliance approach of trying to continue to make it a top agenda item that it is a core violation of the UN Charter, what Russia has done in Ukraine. And other countries are like, "We've got lots of other problems going on. Why so much attention on Ukraine?" I'm paraphrasing, but that has been sort of the sentiment. We had a G20 summit just finished where they were able to come up with some water down statement on Ukraine, not really pointing to Russia, Russia's role there, but more like the desire to end that conflict. But the conflict is a backdrop. We've talked a lot about this grain shipments out of Ukraine being now disrupted, and the impact that's having. That's among many other issues that have had global ramifications, whether it's energy supplies or inflation concerns or so forth. The world is in a tough place. 

Which leads me to the other issue, where the week really kicks off is this is the Sustainable Development Goals, Carla. This is the midway point between when they were kicked off in 2015, and when they're supposed to be concluding in 2030. This is seventeen different goals, pretty ambitious, including eradicating poverty. But it was an effort to really galvanize the experts and practitioners around the world to try to really once and for all deal with a cross-cutting set of issues. And they really speak to the heart of all the problems that we're looking at today. There's climate issues involved, there's inequities both within societies, within genders; Sustainable Development Goal number five is about gender equity, but we're going to see mostly male leaders coming up to the podium to speak at the UN. Our affiliated podcast, Why it Matters, just kicked off its new season with an episode focusing on this real imbalance, and why this gender norm of male dominance continues, and the really deep-rooted problems there. But also, preventing that kind of equity prevents fuller debate and fuller participation in solving these huge problems. 

And then after Sustainable Development Goals are discussed and potentially there's some sort of reinforcement of hitting the targets. And by the way, there's only about 12 to 15 percent of the targets are on track for being hit right now. Once that's discussed, there's what's being called Climate Week kicks off, and that's really a setting up of what's going to transpire at the end of the year, which is the COP meeting. So this is COP 28 taking place in the Gulf. 

And again, because of the events I mentioned and concern in countries, the most vulnerable countries, that more than ever is going to be a focus on what is being done to both stop the ongoing surging of fossil fuel emissions that have been tied by many experts to climate change, as well as building up the resilience of countries to face these growing instances of epic fires, flooding, heavy hurricane storms, typhoons, what have you. What is going to be done to sort of build up resilience at the same time to try to redouble efforts to move from fossil fuels to cleaner energies, and also help the countries that are, let's say, reliant on coal? It's not an easy issue. How do you get these countries to make that transition from a heavy coal reliance to another energy? Lots of countries are struggling with that. South Africa was struggling with, it was a big issue at their hosted BRICS Summit, for example. 

So, a huge amount of issues, Carla, we can go on and on, but it's going to be another test of this global temperature on whether or not there's just going to be sort of fuming and sort shouting across the podium, or maybe a sense of a little bit more common purpose.

Carla Anne Robbins:
So I am intrigued by the Climate Summit mainly because, and when you were talking about who wasn't invited to it, which intrigued me because, this is very un-UN. I mean the Secretary General Guterres has set it up that there's this non-negotiable price of entry that you have to have, "a credible, serious climate action and nature-based solutions." And that countries are going to supposed to come with new commitments, their net-zero targets are supposed to have real climate plans.

And the notion that you could not invite a P5 member because Britain doesn't have a good enough plan, is a pretty extraordinary thing for a secretary-general who, let us not forget is chosen by the Security Council. We all know that that's really the way it works. I mean, A, that's pretty sassy on Gutierrez's part, and B, is there some potential for progress here because of the moral-suasion of the secretary-general? I don't usually expect that from the UN.

Bob McMahon:
There's the potential, I think it's going to take more than the secretary-general's bully pulpit. He tries to use it as effectively as he can. Last year he had some pretty stark words about the state of the world as well, some of it echoing the Ukraine concerns, but there were others that he made. So I think he picks his moments carefully, but I do think he's got a bigger audience listening on the climate front, because across the world people can point to things happening that haven't happened before, and their alarm at it.

And I think there's also this sense that, whether it's some of the posturing at the BRICS Summit, or the statements of concern that the G20 summit of recent vintage, there's a concern that the global structures are not cutting it. The way that they're providing, let's say that the World Bank is involved in helping to finance resiliency or whatever. That it needs to be more robust, that there needs to be a better transfer of real resources to the neediest countries, whether it's the least developed countries or the island states in particular, which are on the front lines of climate change.

There's a sense that the existing structures, Western dominated and so forth... And it's not just talking points from China and Russia, it's other countries as well are concerned that the so-called Global South is not being properly represented. And so are we going to see markers laid out at the climate summit that are going to be showing a real emphasis on a transfer of resources, real attention on the financing for resiliency, for one thing? As well as, there's a whole host of issues. There's the countries that vow to slow down their deforestation, are they going to be compensated in kind? Is there going to be help for, again, these countries that are transitioning from coal to renewables, is that going to be something that's going to be forthcoming? Because the richer countries, the industrialized countries, they plow through their period of heavy fossil fuel consumption, and the world just can't afford the emerging countries to do that.

And so that's an old discussion, it's appeared at COPs over the last dozen years or so. But I think to your point, I think there's more of a sounding board for Guterres, and I think we're going to hear more countries, again, beyond what Pakistan was saying last year, more countries talking about, this is really a time where we have to start talking about these issues, and new approaches to these issues.

One other thing that we've talked about before that is going to get extra attention this year is the role of indigenous people and their stakes, but also potential lessons they could provide in trying to help be better stewards of the land, but also dealing with climate change issues. So I think, keep an eye out for that. Keep an eye out for new ideas as well as new resources.

Carla Anne Robbins:
A lot to watch for there. And let's see if there are, as I like to say, deliverables at that summit.

Bob McMahon:
Yeah, we talked about Raisi being there, we talked about Biden being there. In the past there were sometimes serendipitous moments and hallway encounters that could lead to discussions and so forth. I don't think we should expect that between the Iranian and U.S. leaders, but it's still sideline discussions at the UN, at UNGA are still seen as very valuable opportunities for leaders or groups of leaders that don't often get a chance to get together in the room, or aren't part of the bigger clubs. Even though BRICS is growing, and G20 is now invited African nations, the UN is still a place where you can get some productive conversations going. So I think that's something that we should also watch.

And you do have administration in the Biden administration that is seeming to be, wanting to be open to these types of discussions. They are also going to remind countries though about the war in Ukraine being a corrosive factor that needs to be addressed. You're going to have the... I believe Zelenskyy is going to attend and be in some of these meetings, so keep an eye out for that too. We've talked about his appearance at other summits, Carla.

Carla Anne Robbins:
We couldn't pass up the Zelenskyy, how many meetings? Maybe we should have a little drinking game for, how many meetings will Zelenskyy be in at UNGA? Watch that, okay.

Bob McMahon:
Watch that storyline. Well, Carla, we talked our way into the audience figure of the week portion of the podcast, in which listeners can vote on every Tuesday and Wednesday at cfr_org's Instagram story. This week, Carla, our audience selected, "Cuba Arrests Seventeen Russian Recruiters." What are Russian recruiters doing in Cuba?

Carla Anne Robbins:
Well, apparently recruiting fighters for Ukraine. I find this story absolutely fascinating and completely bizarre. Bizarre because of the way the Cuban government described this recruitment. I mean, it's not actually all that surprising. I mean the Russians, they need, they need canon fodder. But the Cubans' foreign ministry, they released a statement that led with, "Cuba counters human trafficking operations aimed for military recruitment purposes." That's a pretty extreme way of describing what they were doing.

And the other thing that I find fascinating, bizarre about this is why is, Havana picking a fight with Putin right now? Foreign ministry went out of way to say, "We're not picking sides in Ukraine, and we're going to act against anyone who gets involved in mercenarism," but they really did say this was a dispute that wasn't something they wanted to participate in. And since the invasion, Cuba's resisted denouncing the war in Ukraine, resisted denouncing Russia, they abstained twice during the vote on UN General Assembly. And while they're presenting this as neutrality, in reality they're denouncing the Russians, which is a pretty extraordinary thing. 

Cuba is in really tough economic shape, Putin needs as many friends as he can find, and in recent months, Moscow and Havana looked like they were really working to revive their economic relationship. And so I don't have an answer for why this thing came about. Maybe somebody who was involved in the recruitment really annoyed the leadership, and it's all really a domestic kerfuffle. But if anybody's convicted, and we don't know who these people are who were arrested, this mercenarism, which is the actual crime that they're describing, carries a potential thirty to life sentence, or even a death sentence to it. So it's a pretty serious, who knows what's really going on here, but I don't know why they're picking a fight with Moscow.

Bob McMahon:
Well, Carla, if you don't know that, it is truly a bizarre story. You know Cuba well, and especially dating back to the era when it was basically a client state of the Soviet Union.

Carla Anne Robbins:
No, I don't date that, I don't-

Bob McMahon:
Well, you know of that provenance, I'll say.

Carla Anne Robbins:
Yes, I did. I did work there when it was a client state of the Soviet Union.

Bob McMahon:
But it is, as you say, it is one of the more intriguing head scratching stories of the week. The other thing to think about is, as you say, Russians are certainly looking for manpower where they can get it in the post-Prigozhin era of Wagner. No one's really sure what is Wagner going to be, the Wagner group that has been an important source of boots on the ground, shall we say. Whether or not they feel like Cuba can be a conduit for recruiting, I just don't know. It is truly bizarre.

Carla Anne Robbins:
I mean, it's a pretty small country, and they don't really have a great reputation for their oversee battles. I mean, they didn't do particularly well, and it was a long time ago in Angola. Their export, usually they export doctors. And nobody's talking about that, in fact some of the people who were interviewed but in the Cuban press said that they were, "Looking for my kid and saying they were offering construction work," or they were looking for people who were directly out of prison. They weren't looking for the professionals that Cuba usually exports. And I might add when they export them, the hard currency gets paid to the Cuban government, not to the people who are exported.

But Cuba is in tough economic shape so I will repeat myself, I have no idea why they're pissing a fight with Moscow. But fascinating story, and if I had to predict based on absolutely no information, but only on my experiences, this has more to do with the domestic. Somebody's getting rich off of something, but we'll have to see if the information comes out.

Bob McMahon:
Well, that's our look at the turbulent world next week, and the UN next week. Here are some other stories to keep an eye on. Negotiators from the EU and from South America's Mercosur trade bloc meet in Brasilia. Another bloc, ASEAN, holds its first joint military maneuvers in Indonesia's South Natuna Sea. And, millions attend Munich's Oktoberfest.

Carla Anne Robbins:
Please subscribe to The World Next Week on Apple Podcast, Google Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcast, and leave us a review while you're at it, we really appreciate the feedback. The publications mentioned in this episode, as well as a transcript of our conversation are listed on the podcast page for The World Next Week on CFR.org.

Please note that opinions expressed on The World Next Week are solely those of the hosts, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. Today's program was produced by Ester Fang. Feel better, Ester. With Director of Podcasting Gabrielle Sierra. Special thanks to Sinet Adous for her research assistance. Our theme music is provided by Miguel Herrero, and licensed under Creative Commons. This is Carla Robbins saying, so long, and I'll see you at UNGA, Bob.

Bob McMahon:
This is Bob McMahon saying goodbye, and I'm not going anywhere near UNGA, Carla.

Carla Anne Robbins:
The traffic will be fun.